Grass Roots Research* and Distribution, Inc.
 
 
 
 
 

The Investor Awareness Industry Research Firm Of Choice

125+ Researched Companies. Distribution to 8.6 million Potential Investors.

The Cohen Price Target TM

Our outside analysts have developed The Cohen Price TargetTM which uses a combination of academic and market-based valuation approaches. The following four equal weighted (25%) components used in calculating our target price, include the assumption of capital raised.  Our outside analysts from whom we purchase our reports all use the following components when applicable to a given company.

 

1.   The first 25% equal weighted component:  is the market multiple based valuation methodology. This method uses the industry average 2010E Price-to-Earnings ratio to calculate the potential stock price (and/or Price to Book if an asset based company). We take the average Price-to-Earnings multiple of a given industry. This means that on an average, stocks in this industry should currently trade at a multiple times their 2010 expected earnings.  These earnings in a small cap company are usually only generated by a small company raising cash to meet its master budget.  The index, therefore, reflects capital invested in any micro/small cap company.

 

2.   The second 25% equal weighted component: Cohen Capital Employed based valuation. Most start-up and micro/small cap companies require significant capital to meet our projections.  Our Cohen Price TargetTM reflects the Company’s ability to raise additional capital. Based on our capital projection and long-term price target from our Cohen DCFTM valuation model, we derive a Price-to-Capital Employed ratio. We then multiply this ratio with our capital employed per share assumption to derive this target price.

 

3.   Our third 25% equal weighted component:   is our use of the Cohen Price Performance IndexTM, which calculates the average price increase of all the stocks covered by Grass Roots Research and Distribution Inc. and Cohen Research after their release. Currently, for the week ending April 26, 2012, the Cohen Price Performance IndexTM is up by more than 90%, meaning that we expect the stock to follow the same trend and rise by that level.  To date, since May 2009, 90%+ of all of our researched stocks post report release have traded above the price of our initiate coverage report within 30 days.  The Index assumes that almost all of its companies had capital employed in each company.  

 

4.   Our fourth 25% equal weighted component:  is our Cohen Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method of valuation. Our Cohen DCFTM valuation includes a complex trademarked formula proprietary to our firm, that includes an assumed long-term sustainable growth rate, cost of capital and assumed capital invested in a given company.  Our DCF price target values a company today, based on projections of how much future cash will be generated from a given company.  We assume that a company is worth all of the cash it can make available to investors in the future.  It is called 'discounted' cash flow because cash in the future is worth less than cash today, and therefore must be discounted to today.  We forecast various line items including assuming a given amount of capital is raised, to calculate the free cash flow we project a company to generate during our 5 year forecasted time period.  If a company does not raise our estimated cash requirements, it is highly unlikely to reach our forecasts and can go out of business.  After using a formula to discount free cash flow, we divide the total forecasted equity of the company by the shares of stock outstanding to calculate our Cohen DCF valuation, or theoretical price per share target.   We believe the Cohen DCFTM formula is a more accurate measurement of operating cash than the traditional DCF used by most Wall Street research analysts.  A DCF, or 5 year forecasted free cash flow projection, cannot be calculated without forecasting the three statements (IS,BS,CF) for 5 years.  We are the only firm in the investor awareness industry that forecasts all of our companies for 5 years in three assumed cases.  We believe this in depth level of securities analysis is a must for all of our companies, and is a foundation of the Cohen Research MethodTM.

 

Capital raising and cash are the life blood of any micro cap/small company.  Our Cohen Price TargetTM  includes 4 components, 25% equal weighted, that together reflect capital is raised in our client companies.   Our components are trademarked and proprietary to our firm, as is the Cohen Performance IndexTM

 

Most micro/small cap companies have difficulty raising sufficient funds to reach our theoretical forecasts; hence there is considerable risk for any investor.  While we do not give investment advice, any company that cannot raise adequate capital to finance its business model is a highly risky investment, short term or long term.  High growth industries can have high price targets; lower growth industries can have lower price targets.  Each company's price target is affected by the potential for growth in its given industry.  Investment awareness campaigns also affect our reaching our price targets.  Do not rely on our price targets because they are based on academic theory.  Do your own research or consult with your investment professional.  Our reports do not provide information reasonably sufficient upon which an investor can base an investment decision.

 

5 Year Forecasting through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis.

 

The majority of our reports assume a given company will have enough cash to run its business for 5 years.  Most reports assume cash is raised over a 5 year period to reach or forecasted price targets and valuations.  The academic community has various accepted methods for forecasting 5 years of the Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow statements.  One method is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis.  Another is the Gordon Growth Model.  We mostly use DCF.  We have included DCF calculations and explanations for all interested parties and investors who wish to understand the heart of The Cohen Price Target.

 

The theory behind the DCF model is that investors are willing to pay for a stream of future cash flows.  Future cash flows are discounted with a present value formulation to determine a fair stock price today, given what we know and how we forecast the future.  Present Value (PV) is the value in today's dollars assigned to an amount of money in the future, based on our estimate of rate-of-return over the long-term. In this analysis, rate-of-return is calculated based on annual compounding. A given amount of money is always more valuable sooner than later since this enables one to take advantage of investment opportunities. Because of this, present values are less than corresponding future values.

 

Our key input is the rate used to discount future cash flows to their present values. Most firms have a well-defined policy regarding their capital structure. Therefore, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) (after tax) is appropriate for use with all projects. Present value is additive. The present value of a quantity of cash flows is the sum of each one's present value.

 

There are three main steps to calculating a DCF

 

1.        First, we calculate the stream of cash flows in the five-year forecast period.  Then we discount these cash flows back to the beginning of the first forecasted fiscal year.  The method we use to discount back to the present is the Present Value Method where we discount the free cash flows of the company by the WACC.

 

2.        The second step is to determine the company’s value at the end of the forecast period.  This is the Terminal Value.  The Terminal Value is then discounted back to the beginning of the first forecasted fiscal year.  The method we use to discount back to the present is the Perpetuity Growth Model. The Perpetuity Growth Model accounts for the value of free cash flows that continues into perpetuity in the future, growing at an assumed constant rate. To determine the present value of the terminal value, one must discount the Terminal Value by a factor equal to the number of years included in the initial projection period. If N is the fifth and final year in this period, then the Terminal Value is divided by (1 + r) ^5.

 

3.        The final step is adding these two to determine a fair value today based on what we know about the future.

 

An important decision in using Present Value models is deciding what cash flow or earnings stream will be forecasted and eventually discounted to compute an evaluation.  We forecast Free Cash Flow which requires more input than simply using EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization). 

 

A simpler method for discounting cash flow forecasts is using EBITDA (not a GAAP reporting required item).  EBITDA can be defined as gross cash flow. This method of discounting is appropriate when EBITDA forms the basis of evaluation for the company. This method works well with small companies that have yet to post positive earnings.  For all other companies, it is a good idea to examine at how the valuation methodology is applied.

 

DCF is a more involved forecasting method because it calculates the forecasted Free Cash Flow.  The method requires forecasting of items such as the Operating Margins, tax rates, capital expenditures and changes in working capital.  In addition, Debt is not subtracted from the discounted Free Cash Flow since Free Cash Flow is, by definition, net of the debt payments. 

 

For the most part, free cash flow is a trustworthy measure that cuts through much of the arbitrary “guesstimates" involved in reported earnings. Regardless of whether a cash outlay is counted as an expense or turned into an asset on the balance sheet, free cash flow tracks the money left over for investors.

 

DCF analysis treats a company as a business rather than as a ticker symbol and a stock price.  It requires us to think through all the factors that will affect the company's performance. DCF analysis really gives the investor an appreciation for what drives stock values.

 

Five years of forecasting in the Income Statement must be forecasted for the complete 5 year forecast timeframe.  We analyze prior year’s data to aid in making better forecasts.

 

Terminal Value

 

Since we cannot estimate cash flows forever, we generally impose closure in discounted cash flow valuation by stopping our estimates of cash flows five years (Y+5) in the future and then computing a terminal value that reflects the value of the firm at that point.

 

The Terminal Value is the forecasted value of the stream of cash flows the company will have at the end of the forecast period.  We base this on the company’s prospects at that time. We assume that the cash flow in year five (Y+5) will continue at a stable growth for five more years. Since this is too far in the future to accurately forecast, we do not attempt to forecast the individual line items that compute cash flow.  We use the Long Term Sustainable Growth Rate as the primary determinant of the Terminal Value.

 

Therefore, our DCF computes a value for the company in year five. We have found that calculating the terminal value using the stable growth method provides more accuracy because of the multiple or sum of years method we employ. 

 

The Terminal Multiple is an important component of equity valuation.  This is the value one expects will be the growth rate at the end of the forecast time period, Y+5.  Since it is difficult to accurately forecast this, it is common to use the Long Term Growth Rate as the proxy for the Y+5 growth rate.  As analysts, we can experiment with Terminal Multiples that are appropriate for the company in which we are analyzing.  We normally forecast a long term growth rate in the middle of this range.  Our output graphs then describe the range of target prices based on a range of assumed growth rates. When studying the target price output, one quickly sees the target price sensitivity to the terminal multiple.  Our sensitivity index is defined as “A technique for determining the outcome of a decision if a key variable (discount rate) differs from projected one.” This makes empirical sense.  When the perception of growth prospects changes for a company, the stock typically reacts strongly.   Note that our analyst has to project the three statements for five years in order to calculate our DCF

 






New

 


 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

Click here for a list of all covered companies

Home - Disclaimer - About Us - Contact Us - Login

Copyright © 2013 Grass Roots Research* and Distribution, Inc.